I think the Blue Grass is the least interesting betting race of the 3 big preps this weekend. I was hoping that I could make some money keying Offlee Wild and tossing Badge of Silver but then the inevitable happened a little earlier than I thought it would and Badge of Silver was taken off the Derby trail because of an injury.

I pretty much agree with the ROTW analysis with one exception - I am more interested in Crowned Dancer.

Crowned Dancer is slow coming in but I don't think a 3-4 pt jump is out of the question given his line, which looks explosive.

I agree that the fast, early 2yo races are not ideal but this horse's breeding does not imply a precocious sprinter. In fact, there is some nice stamina underneath in his pedigree.

His comeback race was just about exactly what you would like to see. He pressed a very hot pace but did not fall apart (i.e., he ran like a short horse) and ran a fig that was a little better than his 2yo top. Also note that his trainer is not that great off the bench and this was the first race after a very long layoff and the first time around 2 turns. The horse has had 6 weeks to recover and Kent D. made the trip east to ride him and he tries 2 turns for the second time.

I think this horse has an outside shot to win and a good chance to hit the board. A lot of the other horses could be heading the wrong way in this race (a lot like the SA Derby) and this is one horse that looks like he could be sitting on a big new top (the other one that might pop is Acceptable Venture as the ROTW analysis noted).

Anyway, at likely huge odds I may take a flyer on Crowned Dancer as the key rather than key OW who will now likely be a strong second choice. A high-risk, high-reward approach.

Both the Wood and the Aks Derby look like better wagering opportunities to me though.

Good luck to all.

Chris