darkstar53 wrote:

> Very new to these sheets and just want to be sure I'm clear.
> If a horse runs a 6 (as a top) carrying 118 and is figured to
> run back to that top today but is now carrying 123, would you
> consider that without improvement (returning to his former top)
> a 7 is his likely best today.
>
>

No. If the horses runs a 6, and it doesn't improve it'll run another 6. Weight is accounted for in the figure. Weight disparity is only important in analyzing what figure a horse will run today. For example if horse A totes 123 and runs 6's and horse B totes 118 and runs 7's then assuming equal ground loss, horse A and horse B will cross the finish line abreast--tied. Remember 5 pounds in weight carried is equal to 1 Thoro-Graph point. Horse A will get a 6, horse B a 7, but they will finish tied. Horse A gets the lower figure because it carried 5 pounds more than horse B.

For a more detailed explanation of all variables Thoro-Graph uses to compute performance figures, and how to use these factors for handicapping purposes, listen to the Introductory Seminar found on the Introduction page. Also the Race Of The Week (ROTW) provides written commentary interpeting Thoro-Graph figures for a particular of interest every week. The Race Of The Week is the Blue Grass Stakes which is run at even weights. But in the ROTW archives, there are plenty of races in which weight disparity plays an important handicapping role.



TGAB