I have to echo most of the TG analysis. A rested Lukas horse with speed on the rail in the Lex is clearly a danger but I just cannot believe it will be that much of a secret. I don't see this horse going off at anywhere near the morning line. Also, this is a speed-filled race and Scrimshaw will have to be sent from the rail as will Trust N Luck from the far outside so the pace is likely to be very hot. I know Kee has a speed/rail bias but I don't know if that will be enough for these two to survive the likely hot pace. Both also have suspect lines and could easily X if the pace is hot.

Minister's Wildcat should get the ideal stalking/rail trip and I loved him heading into the SA Derby (was very disappointed when he scratched late) and I still like him a lot in this race. He looks slow coming in but he has the perfect Drysdale spring-3yo line and comes in very fresh off a spectacular work (particularly, for a Drysdale horse) and he gets first time blinkers (a move Drysdale seems to be making with a lot of his horses right now). The morning line seems low and disappointing but I still think he is decent value even at 7/2 (I know TG would disgree) and I would not be surprised to see his odds drift up higher than that.

Domestic Dispute is the other obvious play but I am concerned about his consistently wide trips particularly at Kee. I did not like him in the SA Derby because of the outside post and Baffert comments that implied that he felt the horse runs better "outside in the clear." I have to believe that he and Bailey are smart enough not to try those tactics at Kee but you never know. DD may just be one of those horses that does not like to run inside of other horses. The pace of the race should set up for him though and he does have a strong line so, if he can finally work a decent trip, he is probably the one to beat. I hope he runs well enough to punch his ticket to the Derby since I do have a future book play on him.

I pretty much agree with TG on the rest of the horses. I think this race will come down to the pace and track bias (will Scrimshaw and TNT push each other hard early and will the track be favoring the rail and speed) and the trip (will MWC get the perfect trip including first run on the tiring front-runners or will DD finally save some ground and make a big run late). It should be a good race and I will have to see the odds before I decide on the play (I think the post-time odds could be quite different than the very suspect morning line).

I am hoping that I can key MWC because I think he is poised to run a real stunner. Take a look at the sheets for 2 of the likely favorites in the Derby: Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted. They had very similar lines to MWC prior to their big jump and MWC is just as well-bred and well-trained as those two and actually a little faster than they were just prior to their spring jumps. Also, I noted in a previous post regarding the SA Derby about how similar MWC's line is to previous Drysdale 3yos that made impressive jumps at this time of the year including FuPeg, Sunday Break and War Chant.

Cheers.

Chris