Lil E. Tee went off his feed briefly prior to his 1992 Derby. I loved the horse and the feed issue really bothered me. He was eating hearty at the end and I decided the odds were good enough to not let the feed issue bother me.

Unbridled's Song was the favorite in his year. He was wearing a bar shoe after coming down with a hoof problem. I wouldn't accept that shoeing at his odds. That one worked out for me too as he pulled a "Staggerman" in the stretch.

E.M.inem (Desperate Staggerman) is gonna be the favorite, how much of one is anyone’s guess. I think he'll go off at 7-5 or less. The clockers reported a choppy move in his last work and then the foot bruise was discovered. The stretch run in the Wood might be explained by a foot problem. Bobby says the horse is fine, but he won’t be tested with a drill again to prove it. Though for now, there is no bar shoe. Maybe it boils down to how convincing the Florida Derby and Wood were to you. I think the Florida Derby was an optical illusion. I believe that E..M.inem didn’t draw off by 10 in the Florida Derby. I think the others just quit running. How many from that race are in this field? The only horse to test E.M.inem in the Wood is back again. He was beaten a half length. We’ll see how he fares this time. Many will back Bobby believing he would scratch if anything were wrong. I’m not as sure of that. How bad do you think he wants to win this race? If this were another race I wonder if he would be running? But then again, Bobby doesn’t break down animals with the frequency of Lukas or McPeek or even Baffert. I’ll admit I’m scared to death of E.M.inem. I’m afraid he’ll beat me up and steal my lunch money, but you don’t back a horse in the Derby at 7-5 with nagging doubts in the back of your mind. If I made this animal my key and he lost I’d say: “You moron, weren’t the warnings there.” So it’s a position against the favorite, I’ve bet some in the past but I’m not betting this one and if I lose, I won’t lose next year or the year after.

As for Frankel and Bailey teaming up at over 40%. That’s exactly the kind of statistic I like to buck. But even at that win percentage isn’t 6-5 a non profit bet?

Lol

Tabi



Post Edited (05-02-03 08:03)