We don't have the work on anything before 1992, and SAB saved even more ground than FC, but by definition we are saying that. On the other hand, if you think I'm going to stand behind my work of 18 years ago, when I was still in diapers, you are crazy. I was just learning my trade, and it took time for the data base to firm up enough to produce the kind of tightness you can see in the 03 Derby and Oaks figures-- you start by using rough averages (par levels), then go on to using the figure histories of the horses that ran on a specific day, in a specific race. Gradually things get smoother and tighter.

In 85 I wouldn't have known enough yet to pull the only 1 1/4 race loose from the rest of the day, and might not even have known enough to split the one and two turn races. Yeah, back in '85 the figures were still largely a result of broad averages, and much rougher, sort of like...



TGJB