Re: Back, Briefly (649 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: May 19, 2003 02:33PM
Sorry you feel that way, and we don't push the analysis-- we feel it is much better to learn how to use the data yourself.
As I said after last year's Derby-- we do the analysis under the assumption that the ones who use that product are less sophisticated players, who bet less. Our handicappers are therefore told to give out plays with a small number of combinations, so the small player can cover them. This is not necessarily going to be the same play that you or I would make given a larger bankroll, or when we see the odds.
I bet about $500 on the race, less than 20% of what I bet on the Derby. Midway Road went off much longer than I thought he would, since both Friedman and myself were pushing him. I ended up having him on 90% of my tickets, but for the most part my play was very similar to the one I gave out. The differences were 1) since MR was a big price, most of my play was that part of the bet, and I protected big under PR, and smaller under the live longshots, 2) I only had a small amount on a tri and super part wheel with PR on top of the other "longshots" I liked, since they weren't going off long, and 3) I played a $10 exacta under FC to get my money back, because he was absolutely the only other horse who could beat MR if that one ran, and the exacta was paying about twice what I thought it would when I did the analysis (more than that with 20 minutes to post, when I bet).
Having said all that, I will also say this-- for what it is, our analysis is good value, and is better than anyone else is offering, and I believe could offer. It probably doesn't beat the takeout, but it does well, and you won't be getting picks like the $123 horse Alan put up Friday too many other places.
TGJB