JCJ,

Best Minister would need to improve to win and I think he has less than a 10 percent chance to improve despite the pair-up and distance breeding and keep in mind that he could improve and still lose. I would estimate that he has about a 15-25 percent chance of repeating his last which could hit the board. Finally, given the connection to Sarava, he is also likely to get overbet so I just don't see a lot of value there; however, if he goes off at 70-1 (unlikely), my opinion could change.

Good luck.

Chris