Below is part of an article from the Blood Horse. In it, Jerry Bailey admits that choosing an outside post in the Derby was a mistake.

Don't we hear similar comments from at least one jockey or trainer every year after the Derby?

Don't jockeys and trainers still continue to pick outside posts when inside posts are available year after year in the Derby?

Go figure.

A few other observations:

Note that apparently, even in hindsight, Bailey still would have taken the 10 post over the 5 if he had been sure that Empire Maker was "100%" heading into the Derby. Such seeming over confidence often leads connections (even the most successful trainer and jockey in the world) to purposefully keep heavy favorites wide and "out of trouble." In such cases, you often have a good betting opportunity as was the case in the Derby this year. Combine over confidence with high weight in a handicap or conditioned race and you may have a big underlay based soley on the projected trip.

Also, this constant reference to Empire Maker being "less than 100%" in the Derby despite Frankel's insistence both before and immediately after the Derby that the horse was dead fit and ready is getting old and does not seem to fit the facts. Note that Empire maker basically paired-up his Fla Derby and Wood fig in the Derby and I am guessing that he did not run any faster in the Belmont (probably slower - in fact, TMW may have had the best fig in that race).

Finally, this summer and fall could shape up to be one of the most enjoyable for racing fans in quite some time. If we are lucky, we will have Funny Cide, Empire Maker and TMW hooking up again in the Travers. (I am guessing that Peace Rules will probably be pointed to the BC Mile on the turf). We also have a fast bunch of older horses led by Medaglio D'oro, Congaree, Harlan's Holiday, Volponi, Milwaukee Brew and Mineshaft. Not to mention last year's horse of the year that you would think has to try the boys sooner or later. It could be a fun ride through the BC.

Cheers.

Chris

*****
From the Bloodhorse:

Ever since Empire Maker's runner-up finish as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), Jerry Bailey had been feeling a little bit guilty. The Hall of Fame rider couldn't be blamed for the bruised foot that disrupted the colt's training schedule. But Bailey did regret his decision regarding Empire Maker's post position.
For the Triple Crown's first leg, horsemen were allowed to choose their runners' posts following a draw to determine the selection order. After consulting with trainer Bobby Frankel, Bailey took the No. 12 hole instead of the five.

"Bobby thought he (Empire Maker) would be 100%, so I chose to keep him out of trouble instead of trying to save ground," Bailey said. "I thought I might get lucky from the 12, but I didn't. I got hung outside on the first turn, and that was the difference. If I had chosen the five hole instead of the 12, maybe I wouldn't have lost so much ground."



Post Edited (06-12-03 14:28)