P-Dub,

Everything you say about pace can be discussed as "saving ground" and is already expressed (to some degree) in the figures. A horse that can run a 5 and save ground (quick to the rail out of the gate) can beat a horse that can run a 3 and gets an awful trip. So I always use what you call "pace" in extrapolating the figures and trying to imagine who can win even though we would probably express it a little differently.

I remember your example of One Dreamer very clearly and if I'm not mistaken the horse seemed to run her best at Churchill Downs, which might have been as much of a factor as the pace scenario.

The main problem I have with pace handicapping is that tactics change and you can't really bank on it in the same way you can bank on the final figures the horses run. How many times do you expect a duel that doesn't materialize? Guy decides today is the day he teaches the horse to rate because there is other speed in the race? It happens too often for me to use it as a primary tool. There are ocassionally races where pace is the primary factor but I think those are few and far between.

HP