Mall:
I also believe that there is no accurate way to measure the moisture content of the track which makes this area a guesstimate. Theoritically, you should be able to measure the moisture level in the track just as easiliy as you would the humidity in the air but this cannot be done just yet. Maybe we can have a 1 cubic yard area of the exact composition of the track and keep it where it is expose to the elements and add water as it is being added to the track and take a measurement every 30 min.
Now, according to your model here then a deal rail at Belmont means there is much less moisture on the rail when the track is label fast and this causes the horses to dig deeper into the track and thus slow down. I think we can prove this by getting measurement at every 1/16 of a mile before every race along 5 race path. The next question is exactly how did these reputable scientist measure moisture content?
Also, keep in mind that this does not even start to address turf racing which is an animal of a different breed.
PS
are you in for WED?