Re: Turf Condition & Weather At SA (590 Views)
Posted by:
Silver Charm (IP Logged)
Date: October 23, 2003 02:27PM
The reason I asked is there could be the possibility of TRACK MAINTENANCE becoming an issue.
If things are too fast early on then perhaps the track maintenance crew does even more work on the track and trys to even things out a little bit. But then again maybe they can’t do anything about it, as you explained. If that is the case you are probably talking about a two variant day. Sophisticated figure makers probably have a much better idea than I do regarding this topic.
Here is an example from a BC run a few years ago at Churchill Downs. In the first race, a Listed Stake for 75K F & M, Miss RaHeHa ran 109:3 then about an hour later Cherokee Run ran about the exact same time. Maybe 1/5th of a second difference. IS THERE ANYONE who thinks that the best sprinter in the world was no faster than this Listed Stake filly (she won by a length in a Pat Day hand ride). I know of one SHEET figure maker (Ragozin) who probably did.
Hell even Beyer cut the two races loose. If Cherokee Run and Miss RaHeHa squared off in a match race he would beat her a 100 times out of a 100. This isn’t to say that a SHEET figure system that doesn’t adjust its variants for aberrations such as this is a bad system just a FLAWED system. THOROGRAPH ALWAYS ACCOUNTS FOR THESE ABBERATIONS.
TRACK MAINTENANCE is always happening during a racing card, to what degree is where TGJB comes in—Correct.
I’m sure when Miss RaHeHa ran back the next time out there was a very simple explanation for why she ran no where near her previous figure—She Bounced.
It is these type of examples that give the term bounce a bad name. Just like when Buddy Gil this spring was supposedly in a state of regression according to some when he bounced into the winners circle in the Grade2 San Raphael and then bounced again into the winners circle in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. At least according to Ragozin. TG had a line that looked as though this was an improving horse not a regressing one.
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