jbelfior:

What I do is see what fig will be needed to win a race. i.e. in the Sprint and Classic you'll need to crash at least a -2 to have a shot this year.

Next I evaluate those that have run the needed fig. Might they be over the top (possible for PD, Volp, Conga), can they repeat it? (MdO, TMW and EA) Does anyone else have a chance to run a new top thats close/ (Dyn, Funny, Hold That). Might someone bounce (PD, Dyn, Hold That) The analysis isn't always correct, but you take an educated guess.

Dynever has a best of -1.75, has been an improving 3yo, gets a 5 pound break in the weights worth a point. If Nakatani works out a reasonable trip, its not inconceivable for Dynever to win. You are rewarded with the odds on him, at 20-1. Does he have a 5% chance to win or hit the board? You betcha he does!

Will it happen? Probably not, it's gambling afterall, LOL. btw take a look at last years race, it's in the archives, you'll see Volponi wasn't impossible by any means.

Good luck to all Saturday!



May they all come home safely!