TGJB--

Your comment that turf horses are a lot more figure consistent than dirt horses is certainly evident to anyone who has utilized any type of speed figures/performance ratings.

What I have found is that a majority of sheet players who play grass races stick to this notion like glue. As such, they are less forgiving of a poor grass figure even if it happens to get stuck within a very strong pattern. I'll use two prime examples that occurred recently although I would hazard to guess that others on this site can name plenty more. Both examples led to significantly higher odds than the horse would have been if analyzed in the entire context of his turf figures.

One was LUNAR SOVEREIGN when he paid $22 in winning the Man of War off of the poor showing in the Sword Dancer and BETTER TALK NOW ($15)who won the Knickerbocker off of a poor figure at Keeneland. Perhaps a poor turf figure within a strong pattern can be ignored if the price is right. My guess is that turf horses will bounce back to their overall solid figs quicker than their dirt counterparts. Any thoughts on this?


Good Luck,
Joe B.