Dear ThoroGraph:

Amidst the hubbub over your new figure-based trainer profiles,
your explanation page asks for feedback. My initial thinking is
that these can be useful. [My reservations are nitpicks not worth
getting into here.]

In any case, I'm compelled to offer suggestions as to how to
enhance your sheets. For your consideration, the following
are things I personally would like to see from you:

- 1. WINNING PARS. Include on each sheet the ThoroGraph
WINNING PAR for the class of race each horse is running in
today. For example, if a horse is competing in a MSW route
race for New York-Breds at Saratoga, tell us the WINNING PAR
ThoroGraph determined from a sample taken the prior year/
the prior meet [or more]. What's the winning par for 25k f/m
claimers at GP? 50k turf sprinters at Monmouth? The Fred
Hooper Hcap at Crc? The Suburban at Belmont? What
performance figure is it [sorta-kinda] going to take to win
these races? Tell us.

- 2. Include NEW TRAINER CATEGORIES:

- MSW TO MCLM. [Horses dropping into maiden claimers from MSW.]
- DEBUT AT ROUTE. [Horses whose first start s around two turns.]
- IMPORTS [First start in North America.]

- 3. Enhance YOUR DATA FOR FIRST-TIME STARTERS.

Your first-time starter stats [and your second-timer stats too] are terrific.
Specifically, I like the way you break the numbers into sub-categories
of class, age, and the different windows of odds. This is valuable because,
for example, while the DRF stats might deceptively indicate that a trainer
has had two debut winners, ThoroGraph users can know that these came
in maiden claiming races only, and NOT in the tougher MSW races
where that trainer may be 0 for 22. Or else, for example, ThoroGraph
users can know if a trainer wins with first-time starters within a window
of 10-1 or higher odds. This is all great.

But I suggest you go further. In instances when a horse is a first-time
starter, your sheets have a lot of [essentially] void space. Use this space
to INCLUDE AN ACTUAL LISTING of the first-time starters the trainer has
trained. Your database already has this info. Simply re-purpose it. How
many can you list on a page? 10? 20? 30? More? You might art direct
the sheet to include some variation of the example below:

TG... Date............Track...... Class........ Horse/Age.............. Finish....Odds

10... 08Nov02.... 09Aqu... MSW........ LEAD STORY (2)... 1st... 6-1
08... 09Aug01.... 06Sar... MSW......... LAST SONG (2)...... 3rd... 7-1
20... 13Jan00.... 07TP..... Mclm50.... ROUSED (4)............ 8th... 15-1
29... 14Apr99.... 04Kee... Mclm75.... STROKER (3).......... 9th... 23-1
12... 15Nov98... 01CD.... MSW........ DIVINE LOVE (2).... 1st... 4-1

AVG. ITS MSW TG: XX.XX.................. BEST ITS TG: XX.XX

[I can see a few users might be aghast at this suggestion. "You mean,
you want us to wade through 30 or so running lines of smallish type?"
My answer: YES!]

With this listing, a user SPECIFICALLY will know how a trainer like
Eoin Harty's 2 yr. old first-timers have fared, and we'll have a much
better feel for what to expect. If they pretty much all debut at about a
15-ish or higher, then we might not have to throw "saver" money on
it to beat a Mandella colt who's sure to run in the single digits today.

If we see that trainer George Weaver's first-timers do well at huge
odds, that's good. But if we specifically see in a listing that some
of these have been eye-popping single-digit ThoroGraphs, that's
even more valuable.

If trainer Grant T. Forster is 7 for 7 ITM with his firsters bet down
between 4-1 and 10-1, then list them. I want to see SPECIFICALLY
what TG numbers they ran. Tell us, so we can tangibly relate our
expectations of how they might do, to how we project others in
the field might do.

- 4. Include the AVE. FORWARD MOVE FOR 2ND-TIMERS.

In the sheets of second-time starters, include the average forward
move [in ThoroGraph points] a second-timer will make relative to
its debut. What kind of point jump does a Nick Zito-trained 2 year old
second-timer make at Saratoga? Typically, it's a big leap forward.
What should we expect from Todd Pletcher's 3 year old second-
timers at Gulfstream? How much do they move forward? Tell us.

Interestingly, most of these suggestions concern maiden races,
events that can be mysterious and unbettable. And for sure, each
of these suggestions can be tweaked in many different directions.
But with sheets that include this enhanced data, ThoroGraph users
will have a unique edge.

Happy New Year.

JohnTChance