jdub,

I do plan to share the results of my Kentucky Derby computer model (that uses the Derby profiles along with a lot of other data) again this year. Thanks to some cool recent enhancements to the model (compliments of a friend), I will be able to provide a much better odds line this year.

Unfortunately, until I get the final TG figures, I really cannot crunch the numbers. Once TG puts out the figs for all the contenders, I can do an initial run, but the numbers may change a lot based on the post position draw. I will make a final run after the posts are drawn.

I did do an initial run by estimating the figs for the recent preps. This is a very rough estimate but it looks like Saarland and Perfect Drift are the top 2 picks at "break even" odds of somewhere in the 4-1 or 5-1 range with Harlan's Holiday not far behind with the rest (including the other favorites) all rated at "break even" odds of 15-1 or higher with the exceptions of the Request For Parole who looks like the best longshot bomb for filling out exotics and possibly Essence of Dubai (I cannot really do much with him until I get a fig for his last race, which I have no way of even estimating right now).

According to the model, this looks like a good betting race in that you can probably toss many of the likely favorites including Came Home, Buddah, D'Oro, War Emblem, Private Emblem, Sunday Break, Johanesburg and Proud Citizen and the two key horses are both likely to be at double digit odds.

Thanks for asking.

Chris