Shaniko could be the better by the Wood. I'm not sure when I heard Shaniko was a "wise guy" horse. It may have been after his maiden win. But as much as I like A.p. Indy's, that alone isn't enough to light a fire under me. He's fighting very much an uphill battle to be good enough to get into the Derby field.

That wasn't a Stakes race he just lost. It was a NW1X. It was his fourth race and second at the track and though the T-Graph number is apparently a forward move he came home in 27 and change. (extrapolated) That kind of closing fraction is not gonna win a Derby, unless you go way, way back. He was slow early and slow late.

A.p.'s stud fee is 300K. He gets that on reputation to some extent. Shaniko sold for 550K. Thats a nice profit, but it also means he's not perfect. SFTF's sire on the other hand has a stud fee of about 24k and he sold for 300k and his race results seem to indicate that he has probably overcome the sale workouts the pinhookers push on the two year old in training sales. That tells me he may be put together better than Shaniko, though I haven't had a good chance to eyeball them yet.

Sales prices don't always indicate which horse is better, but they can shed light on conformation. Silver Charm went for 70k is my recollection. Real Quiet and Seattle Slew 17k. (Slew walked like a sailor but ran like a gazelle) Captain Steve about 90K. Silver Ending and Second of June about 7.5K. If I remember right Fupig went for 4,000K. I don't think Fupig won the Derby on breeding. I think he was as Hancock put it conformed like "Superman".

Take a close look at SFTF's past performances. Has this horse shown any inclination to stop? Especially as compared to Shaniko? I wish I'd taken a look at T-Graphs Red Board for this race, it slipped my mind, but I have a pretty good idea of where they respectively stand.

CtC