gladness - he still had the race won and somehow lost it to a horse that had trouble (and was giving him a lot of weight). it's easy to say but I doubt that last year's jo'burg would have thrown that race away (I did see a few of his races last year). maybe (in UK parlance) he hasn't "trained on". that would certainly explain the apparent lack of confidence. believe me, with my UK background, I'd love to see him win - I just can't convince myself right now.
maybe he's better on dirt....