If you're saying a 10 length win may not be as dominant as a 1 length win or even a two length loss, thats what this site is all about. If you're saying a horse is not always as good or bad as its last race, thats what this site is about. Odds on the toteboard help one decide if the last is as good as it looks, in conjunction with the product here of course. But theres another side to that coin as well and that is that sometimes a 10 length win is dominant and sometimes a horse is as good or bad as its last race.

Now, if your saying that Shaniko's last race where he lost by 5 lengths is one of mistaken impression or financial opportunity when he runs in the Louisana Derby, thats possible. But the riches he pays out wont be because he was quicker in the last eighth than he appeared. It will be because the number he ran is competitive with the new crowd and likely because he became a better horse on the riches day.

What a great weekend coming up. The Big Cap, the Louisana Derby and the San Rafael.
The L.Derby looks to be a bang up betting race, all kinds of good improving horses. The Big Cap is interesting. At first glance Mandella is holding some nice cards. Once again, you'd think Pleasantly should be weighted a little more heavily. He appears to only be giving significant weight to Toccet, Royal Place and Saint Buddy, though I'm not considering with figs yet. Saint Buddy caught my eye, his Dam's Dam is a full to Mr. Prospector, but she never produced anything of note. Saint Buddy got in all kinds of trouble last but every time he's gone a semblance of distance he's faded and his Dam side breeding looks weak. I like the weight, but I'm highly suspect of him being able to benefit from it.

I've been rewatching the stakes on bdhsheets site. The more I watch the Southwest the more I'm comfortable with Smarty's race. The fractions were fast and at the end he did not want to let the El Prado horse by. I don't think the competition was much, but the effort appears a bit better than it at first looked.

CtC



Post Edited (03-04-04 06:11)