The only possible way to produce those figures would be to refer to past pars and factor weight and trips. But they are truly "broken off races" because they have no variant nor performance reference as you've stated. Additionally, with the recent phenomena of faster times for younger horses (all horses actually) you can't go by the pars from past years. My guess is that Rags wants to give their players a number for all races as a "value" consideration...even if those numbers aren't particularly accurate. I suppose if they can get two or three baby races a card. They can attempt to create some kind of comparative variant. But, theres not as much science. There can't be.

I like Grey. Grey is easy to follow. You can see Grey on the track and you can see Grey in the pedigree. Let's talk about Grey. Especially as Grey applies to the Santa Anita Cap. Theres two Greys in the race. One of them has a ton of unraced pedigree. I mean no wins, no places, no shows, no STARTS kinda unraced pedigree. The truly empty type. In fact this animal has an unraced broodmare sire that was strictly speed on speed and as I said unraced.

But whats interesting to me is this animal has already won at 10 marks. Kinda looks like it did without even trying. Fractions looked slow. (Figs will help in evaluating.) Theres no real reason to think this animal should find enough additional speed to be a serious factor. Unless you consider Grey. I don't think the 10 mark win was on the basis of the Grey broodmare sire. But what this animal does have is 1953 and 1954 Kentucky Derby Grey. Even the Grey that traces back to "Warfare" is Determine Grey. It appears to me nearly all this animals Grey has its near origin in Native Dancer and Determine. That my friends is the good kind of Grey. Its 10 mark Grey and its potentially 50 year throwback Grey. If you're prepared to believe in that type of thing. I'm not saying this animal is gonna win. All I'm saying is that it sure is Grey.

CtC



Post Edited (03-04-04 23:36)