I would never think of leaving Trevor out of a job. I'd just prefer he'd call a track I don't ever bet on...lol

The filly should have won Joe. She got subtlely pinched back pre first turn and then went wide. Southern went right along the rail. The filly should have a better number. Thats horseracing. I wouldn't have bet her against P.P. so the scratch cost me money...lol I checked the Red Board and the T-Graph picker called the filly. I'm assuming it was TGAB, who I'm beginning to gain quite a measure of regard for. :)

Quinton and Wimbledon have a lot in common. They are both Wild Rush's. They both are lightly raced. They both hail from the land of Trevor Demond and they both may be the best hope for their respective barns. The difference is Quinton won maiden, stepped up on his home track and got beat 6 lengths, Wimbledon won maiden stepped up on a track he never worked upon, rated and won a 600K race in 1:42 and change. I will grant you that Quinton's finish was not an embarrassment, but it wasn't impressive either. He did run wide both turns, take that away from him and hes much closer, maybe right there, but you have to admit time is running short and he didn't overcome adversity. This is the problem with the pre Derby light racing schedule, theres no margin for error. You've got to season the horse and if you find some bumps along the way what are you left with? I don't think you have to grind on them when they are two a la Lukas, but you need a solid foundation. That said the day will come when a horse never starts at two, starts twice pre Derby and wins the thing. You just have to recognize its gonna take a special horse. I don't want that to become the norm though. I don't believe most horses will peak using that model and its just boring. Remember Lammtarra, who wants that kind of careful handling to become standard? BORING. But, our friend Silver Charm made a good point. It's too early to say for sure. You can't rule out Fire Slam and you can't rule out Quinton yet.

I analyzed the Sunday Fair Grounds card. Here are the times from the day:

23.45, 47.68, 1:00.16, 1:06.50 – 12,500 Open Claiming

24.56, 49.05, 1:13.99, 1:39.05 – 20,000 4up Claiming

23.09, 47.05, 59.91, 1:06.70 – 12,500 Open Claiming

21.82, 44.54, 56.76, 1:09.90 – NW1X 3yr Fillies

22.35, 45.58, 58.34, 1:10.69 – 75K Stakes 3yr Fillies

22.48, 45.27, 1:10.65, 1:36.29, 1:42.71 – 600K Stakes 3yr Colts

The races were cheap early. It wasn't until the fourth dirt race that the horses got better and/or the track sped up some. NW1X fillies ran substantially faster than Stakes fillies. The top two finishers in the NW1X both would have won the Stakes. Granted most of the "Stakes" fillies only had two wins and their going in numbers were no better. A perfect example, as someone wrote, that a great trainer places his horses in stakes when they can win stakes. I think its pretty clear at this point that Asmussen's purchase of Polish Rifle from the "Son of leading trainer" connections was in all likelihood a mistake. Perhaps both Asmussen and Barnett could use some speed advice from T-Graph. At first glance I thought the La. Derby was torrid. I'm not confident of that any longer. Beyer only gave Wimbledon a 101 figure. I did this review because I thought it should be faster. My tenative conclusion is that the track was faster than I thought and that the horses that faded from the top spots had less of a justification for having done so. Fire Slam was coming off an infirmity and it may have compromised his chances some, but I think a good horse, like Peace Rules, would have been much closer at the end. I still like Wimbledon, because I think he did it easy, so we'll see.

TGJB and TGAB if I ever put my foot in my mouth (which I'm prone to do) don't hesitate to correct me if its not too proprietary.

CtC



Post Edited (03-08-04 23:06)