I don't know that RTF's pedigree is dubious. Shaniko is an A.p. Indy and he effectively put the brakes on in his last two races after 8 marks. RTF won impressively at 2 yrs old at 9 marks when many colts that age have problems with 6. He also ran a very impressive number in the FOY in my estimation. To this point the only number I'm aware of is Beyer's, but I thought it was run in the best racehorse time.

The problem is Hallandale. If I had a top 3 year old I'm not sure I'd want to drill the speed into him that is necessary to take races like the FOY and Florida Derby. Its a very strange track and many times you can't leave a horse to skip along on the front because if you do he may not stop. If he's out there and you have to push to run him down that can be bad for the long term. Look what the FOY appears to have done: Knock Second of June and Silver Wagon from the Triple Crown trail and cause Sir Oscar to bleed significantly. I think RTF needs two more races pre Derby, I'm just not sure I'd make the Florida Derby one of them, but its a big pot o' gold and its hard to pass up. The upside is that RTF likes the track and if Frisky and Value Plus both run, I'd be comfortable with running there. It's up to Violette he hasn't made any mistakes til this point so I'm not gonna second guess him just yet. If I were looking to win the Derby with him though, I wouldn't be terribly upset if he lost the Florida Derby in competitive fashion and geared up a bit more for the next one. Essentially you have to season your horse in the winter. Where are you gonna go, Santa Anita and listen to Trevor Demond shrill at your horse?

CtC