his 3 dirt runs give probably as little info as 3 races could.

1st out win at Ellis, with trouble
Breeders Cup flop at long odds with no Lasix
subpar Gulfstream race which. Seems to have been a lot of horses not care for the track this winter and run a lot better next out.

Trakus had him running 31' farther than the winner (faster avg mph) in the Bluegrass.

In my experience horses running back quick and run a top or at least within a couple points of the previous race are a good bet to repeat when given a bit more time.

They TGI for Dynaformer includes all synthetics. The old Pro-ride (very turflike) numbers may be bringing that average up some. Would be interesting if TG could run a study of the 184 Dynaformers running on synthetic and just look at the "polytrack" Kee, Wo, AP, TP and leave out the other versions. From the Beyer data I have the Dirt and Poly numbers are pretty close. Really with pro-ride no longer in use, but be valid to strike the data of all those races anyway...

So he checks the boxes for fast, distance, current form, and price.
any negatives are a bit of a guess, seems like a bad choice of horses to let beat you, IMO.