All politicians of all parties love "taxes", they just don't all admit to loving them.

I noticed that Aqueducts handle on Sunday exceeded Gulfstream. I wonder why? I use to refuse to bet Hialeah during its decline. Brunetti had raised the takeout to 25 and 28 percent is my recollection. A very astute handicapper friend of mine said "who cares" all that matters is the tote and the value presented. To a certain extent he was right but the smaller the return pool the more difficult it will become long term.

Reflections on a lost bet

I’ve come to learn the Turfway track was sealed on “Lane’s End” day. I wasn’t aware of that betting “puter”. I knew rain was coming, but you can’t see clouds and such on computer and I never saw the sealing equipment rolled out. I’m not sure how that would have impacted my bet. The “sealing” information would have moved Sinister G. up for me, but I’m not sure even in hindsight I would have bet him in perfectas with the high odds exotic horses. I really thought he’d get involved in a pace war with Hasslefree, but these things are always a matter of fate. My “key” was that I expected Birdstone out of the money. The only horses I really didn’t like were Hasslefree, Birdstone , Hippocrates and New Element. I liked the others and though Little Matth Man was my favorite I didn’t think Tap Dancing Mauk, That’s an Outrage or Tricky Taboo were reasonable win horses. In that regard the following exotic analysis:

Little Matth Man
Sinister G.
Silver Minister
Stolen Time

over

Little Matth Man
Sinister G.
Silver Minister
Stolen Time
Thats an Outrage
Tricky Taboo
Tap Dancing Mauk

over

Little Matth Man
Sinister G.
Silver Minister
Stolen Time
That's an Outrage
Tricky Taboo
Tap Dancing Mauck

over same again for superfecta.

For the trifecta I make that 120 combinations for a $240 dollar outlay. The return would have been approximately 14,000 (downgraded because my winning ticket would have had to have been factored in the individual returns) The return would have been approximately 50-1. Not bad, but not outstanding either.

If my math is right the superfecta would have required 480 combinations or $960, though I probably would have bet just a buck to try and take down the whole pool with a single dollar. So let’s say $480. Since the payout was 106,000 with the entire pool 135,000 it looks like a single bet took the pool. If my single buck had split the pool I would have gotten back 53,000 for the 480 or a return of 110-1. However the chances of the disliked horses sneaking into fourth are greatly increased in that wager. I bet the superfecta and I think a key is essential for it.

I lost my bet, but if that race could be rerun a couple times, I’m convinced I would have done better with significantly less risk than the “Ragozin” method of covering every base. The perfecta returned 588-1.

Matth was so far back you couldn't see it in the race but my advice to the agent wasn't forcefully communicated to the jockey, otherwise I win.

From the Chart:

" LITTLE MATTH MAN far back early three wide, moved in a bit, ADVANCED INSIDE into the second turn, moved out three wide with three furlongs to go, came a path wider approaching the stretch and finished fast on the outside."

"TRICKY TABOO five wide on the first turn when within striking distance, moved closer four wide on the backstretch, continued in that path on the second turn and rallied willingly to be up for the place."

Mr. Mike Kelly, next time I call you with advice please stress with your non english speaking principle the importance of it.

CtC



Post Edited (03-23-04 09:45)