I did dutch it to get a little better than that, but you are right that I made the calculation as to what I would take on the group of them. I thought that was enough, and would have taken the field at 10-1. You could make a case that it was worth the 6-1, given that you will get the SA and Ill Derby winners and probably a few others, but I decided I had enough of the ones I wanted.

I don't think people work out exactly is involved in these futures-- there is a parlay involved, and the further out you get the more races (and other factors, including earnings and eventual post) are involved. Take Pro Prado, just from here-- first he has to earn enough (win or second at Oaklawn), then they have to decide to go, then he has to win. If he wins (maybe 5-1 aginst?) they will presumably go, but what is his chance of winning the Derby? If they run second (35%?), they might get in, but will they go? If they run worse than second, you're out.

So I decided 100-1, which sounds like a lot, was a little plus equity. But not a lot.



TGJB