Rather than analyze the Horses speed figure or pattern because everybody does that I thought I'd analyze the bettors rationale. If I'm right about wrong rationale I might find an opportunity. Note all math done as quick approximations.

Opportunities can then be measured objectively by the simple formula Probability of Success (POS) * Reward = Potential. Your job is simply decide on your POS for each contender. Bet those opportunities with sufficiently large positive potential according to your criteria e.g. 1.4 or whatever.

[b]ENCRYPTION[/b] - Local horse means local fanatics and that suggests most win $'s on this one originate from rapport with connections and wishful thinking. Never underestimate the power of faith. Conventional thinkers toss this one based on running style and speed figures. Few regulars believe this one can outrun the other speed or given that any speed can hold off late runners. Assuming the reward = 21/1, probability of success needs to be about 5% for a 1 or breakeven potential. I'd want 50/1.

[b]Bayern[/b] - Everybody thinks Baffert horses run fast and win races just because about 30% of the time they do. Couple that with he wins this race routinely and you have a m/l of 5/2 i.e. POS equal to about 29%. Add in the confusion of Mar/Apr condition ?'s & trainer moves leaves us to decide between is he a great one coming into his own or another brilliant miler. If price drops from m/l, big inside money knows this one will not be beaten. Regular players stand around with mouths agape thinking his winning performance kind of surprises me? deja vu Bodemeister in the derby.

[b]Albano[/b] - Pattern players either love or hate this one but who will be betting him? Not many La. fans at the shore this weekend, JKreider via ethernet?. Those who watched his last win will have a hard time not tossing a few $'s on this one to win. A 6/1 morning line means one must ascribe about a 14% POS to this one for a breakeven proposition. Lots of small bet regulars who work off the form and value pace analysis probably land on this one. No shortage of Larry Jones bettors in NJ. If his price drops, I don't think it will be because of the masses.

[b]IRISH YOU WELL[/b] - Has ethnic appeal to the tourists. Hard to imagine regulars or professionals backing this one. If 12/1 price holds, doubtful to me, a POS = 8%. I expect this one's price to drift up and to appear in the bottom of a lot of tri and super tickets. Its hard for me to gauge the quantity of $'s moved by a popular Rag's fan who rates this one high? Would be a controversial winner.

[b]Just Call Kenny[/b] - This is one some serious players will consider hard and long. He has no celebrity points sans Bravo (that in itself is probably worth a couple of tote board points here in NJ). However the offtrack handle of a marquis race will offset that. His ride will be critical as most expect this one to do best running late. If his price does not float up, I speculate it will be because some of the heavier hitters back this one. If he drops in price I'll be concerned. Positive expectation is achieved with POS greater than 9%.

[b]Social Inclusion[/b] - The horse many loved and burnt them. The horse many hated and now interests them. Regulars read the trainer say the horse has learned to relax. Owner has little credibility but even blind squirrels find nuts sometimes. At the m/l a POS of 11% is needed. Unfortunately the horse has too much celebrity to hold that price. Many casual players will think this one has only a slightly lesser chance of winning than the favorites and they may doubt the favorites somewhat anyway. Could have significant Hispanic following.

[b]Untapable[/b] - Attractive to conservative and female investors. Speed figures rate this one is fastest, lightest, and pace scenario fits. What else is there to want except a longer price. Many hitters thinking this could be the best 2/1 play I've had this month. M/L translates to 33% POS. Not hard to imagine this one winning one out of three. One worry is that a 2/1 attraction ends up beating the price down to 7/5. Factor in the problem of late money further depressing price. Not like any horse is a lock. Those expecting her to toss a clunker are hopping up and down with excitement thinking all except the skirt will all except the skirt.

[b]WILDCAT RED[/b] - Had a bad Kentucky Derby race at 1+1/4 miles. He was an overrated contender then and not enough NY support or bling north of Hallandale to be a comeback story. Note - it takes a lot of concentration to ignore speed figure considerations in this narrative. Another needing only an >9% POS to be interesting. The South Floridians not playing SI probably love 10/1, since they already think the thick blooded northern horses are overrated and that is before we get to machismo. This one benefits from geographic prejudice. Could be nice value in exotics because many will toss from all placings.

[b]Medal Count[/b] - Sentimental choice dating back to KEE, RIP DWF! Myopia, my choice @ BEL and many saw this one run up closer than usual and finish prominently. Probably will attract the money of those expecting a race run too fast and has some celebrity. With 11% POS needed for consideration vs probability of a race wrecked by pace either a runaway or a meltdown this one gets pace player money sort of by default. At least in the exactas and trifecta. Surface pundits still on the fence not much effect on the price.

[b]Bottom Line[/b]
The high probability of a race result dictated by a fast pace along with the wisdom of the crowd begs exacta and/or trifecta bets under the two favorites with your favorite closers.

If Untapable holds m/l a big win bet warranted and small exotics with many others in case of her failure.

Betting Albano because he looked so good last time the bane of speed figure makers would only be that cults rationale (not the crowds) for discarding.

One Rags fan landing on Irish You Well is eye opening right up there with hoping Joe Bravo gets you out for the day or Hispanic dogs learn new tricks. That kind of risk warrants longer prices

For those who want to stand on the table and yell at the video screen toss favorites and dutch your favorite 10/1 horses. Didn't D'Wildcat surprise us years back?