jbelfior said:

"I'm still trying to "figure" out how one comes up with a valid number for the Wood since it was the only two-turn race that day other than a marathon 1 5/16 race at the beginning of the card."

Extrapolation

It will be a valid number. I have to assume Rags splits variants between one and two turns as a matter of course also. With a 20mph wind day how can you not? But obviously theres a certain amount of "art" to coming up with the figure. If its done as I did it, you start with the pars for two turn races of those conditions. (I think I recall reading Jerry is so adept he skips this stage now...I always glanced at the pars) You get a rough variant for two turns then you compare it to the rough variant from the one turn trips to get an idea of the split. (obviously T-Graph's variant is a figure in flux with his insight into changing track conditions...i never changed variants except on rain, but I fully agree with it..i was naive then...lol) You propose your two turn variant add it to the par and assign a fig to the winner and then work back factoring your performance variables. Then you scrutinize the figures assigned for a reasonable relationship to each individual horse's previous races. If the results are not reasonable you change your theorized variant. The relationship in finishing order is known in the subject race, the skill is in ensuring that the race figures for individual horses is not out of relationship with previous races. The task obviously becomes more difficult in certain situations than others. For example, developing horses or one race at the distance that day. With consistent horses thats not a difficult thing to overcome, with inconsistent horses it can be very difficult, because essentially with a one race sample you can't effectively compare and contrast to fine tune your figures for that odd distance race. This year is even more difficult because of the big efforts and large number of bounces. When half the field bounces your remaining sample to confirm your figure is smaller. Obviously in a two horse race its tougher to assign figures. Luckily for Jerry, Master David and Eddington have been fairly consistent horses and I think he's got a handle on Swingforthefences so personally I would have a good deal of confidence in his Wood number.

Its the Bluegrass that scares me...lol

CtC



Post Edited (04-15-04 18:37)