prince arch - arch is by kris s, out of aurora (a danzig mare out of the great courtly dee), i think he will be a good turf sire. this guy improved quite a bit when getting blinkers and a bit of pace to run into. tough trip last, looks like another few points of improvement is possible. contender off last, winner if he improves a bit.

bogangles - stuck in the "9" range. $3k yearling purchase does not figure to jump stretching out.

brass hat - excellent race last and has nice turf breeding on top. great work over the turf last week, and if he can match his dirt form on turf, he could be tough. i will take a stand against, however. dam side doesn't scream turf, and he might not like today's turf condition (listed as firm, but still a bit soggy).

mr. j.l.t. - could be alone on the lead, and a repeat of last put him close. not sure about the extra 1/8 though. closers have been doing well over this course. contender, but i will take a stand against.

big booster - running style fits course. last race puts him close. a contender, but i will use only in the second and third spots, as a wide trip is expected.

victory light - half to strategic partner, a henning/jr horse that won a stakes race or two over this course. has one nice turf race, that was at a mile, however, and the horse has been hanging a bit going longer. obvious contender, but i will take a stand against at low odds.

lost - scratched

bachelor blues: ran a nice mile at WO as a two yr old, but has been hanging going longer. not sure 9f on this course is his game.

war trace - out of the great memories of silver. full bro didn't stretch out too well, but this guy was flying at the end of his last. needs at least two or three points of improvement off last, and prado needs to find a way to save ground, but a contender simply off breeding.

i think the 1 and 9 could both jump today, and i will use them in the top spots (the 1 to win at the ml line). i will also use the 5 underneath in the exotics.

.......

4th looks interesting. if the turf is a bit soft, the race might set up for a closer. he's crafty and l'oiseau d'argent will both take a lot of money, and both may have a bit of trouble in the stretch. i might key the two best looking closers in the race, first lieutenant and full flow, in the pks, and take one of them to win if he odds drift up to 7-1 or 8-1.