As talented and tough as Dortmund has shown himself to be, this year's crop of three-year-olds is so amazingly deep, I would be skeptical of a horse like Dortmund being able to stay on top of his game for as long as he would need to in order to win the derby; whether he has two or three preps, he'll have a host of other talented three years who may be just as fast (or faster by the first weekend in May) as he is. An early-maturing (and likely heavily favored) type like Dortmund is usually a good play against, esp. when you got so many other good ones pursuing him. It's still way early, but this may be one of the greatest crop of three year olds I've ever seen, and I've seen an awful lot! This is a great year for a long-shot. I'm thinking no dominant California Chrome types who rule over their inferior foes as he did, but rather an under the radar type (at least) between 10 and 20-1.