Ask TGJB, he took a future bet on TCE a long time ago. That Iroqois was a darn good looking race and regardless of how fast the Bluegrass was, its clear TCE is faster now. He's really been battle tested with the some of the best the last two races.

The more I reflect upon the Bluegrass, the more it appears to be fast. Lionheart needed a race last and he ran a good figure. 0.2 I think he was a better horse on Bluegrass Day than San Rafael Day. TCE has proven he's a good closer and though the Bluegrass Track generally favors speed and was favoring speed this year from what I've read here, (I don't play Keeneland), Bluegrass Day it played fairly. Front Runners won, Closers won. I think TCE ran fast.

This Derby is turning into one of the most difficult to handicap that I've ever seen. Theres gonna be a bunch of horses that could do it. The trip is gonna be the key.

I've been running over the entries in my mind and Lionheart was looking more and more like a War Emblem to me. Theres a problem now. Sinister G. is a quick horse. I think his Lanes End is bigger than the figures say it is and I think he bounced Wood Day. I'm not saying he's up to them at Churchill, but I do know he's gonna give Lionheart fits.

later

Ronwar said:

":Just browsing over Sinisters pps, I think he inherited the lead in the Lanes End, and went
:47 1, 1:11 2, 1:37 1, 1:50 3
I believe they'll try laying right behind Lion. Anyone who wants to win this derby will not go near Lion for the first half. Maybe he's just becoming my favorite horse, but I see him opening up with a clear advantage turning for home. And thats when Smith will ask him the most important question of the day...
If he works and draws well, I'm betting the answer is YES"

I'd agree that would be the ideal scenario for Lionheart. He wants the lead and has had it in each of his races. If he's seriously challenged for it by a horse that wants it also, thats the issue. Anyone backing Lionheart will have to factor Big Last Race, Big early challenge. At least thats the way I view it.


CtC



Post Edited (04-16-04 17:53)