TGJB -

There is more than one way to interpret the data in the earlier post. Since Pletcher's stats at Tampa and FG were also good (albeit with smaller samples), one might argue that the effect is more calendar-related than GP-specific.

The real question relevant to the earlier thread is whether Pletcher has "squeezed the lemon dry" at GP (or in the winter months), so that his horses cannot run back to those figures in subsequent starts. One way of examining that issue is to look at the 2014 Derby sheets in the archive and compare Pletcher with the other Derby trainers in terms of the performance of their 3yo's in April-June. The following are those stats for trainers with a sample of over 100 (in order of finish position):

Sherman: 20% tops, 29% pairs
Stewart: 20%, 27%
Pletcher: 20%, 31%
Jerkens: 22%, 34%
Violette: 19%, 25%
Romans: 21%, 29%
Baffert: 23%, 30%
Maker: 22%, 25%
Sadler: 19%, 34%
Contessa: 17%, 27%
Asmussen: 17%, 25%
Garoffalo: 17%, 31%