Re: Materiality's Derby (429 Views)
Posted by:
toppled (IP Logged)
Date: May 25, 2015 12:04PM
It would have been a bad sign if AP was going to gallop up to the race, it wouldn't have fit his normal training program. He works out regularly between races. The reason he galloped up to the Preakness is that the 2 weeks between races didn't fit into his normal training program, 3 weeks are within the schedule of his past works & easier to predict. If he works tomorrow, I'd expect one more work next Sunday or Monday, otherwise he'll probably work next Saturday or Sunday. I didn't expect 2 works, but it's within his historic work pattern.
Here's a historic look at AP's training program with his race schedule
(fraction is in 5ths of a second, not hundredths)
2yo campaign:
Debut 8/9/14: 5f workout in 59.4 on 8/3/14, 6 days before the race-it was his 11th work prior to his debut.
2nd race 9/3/14: Works out 9 days after 1st race, 4f in 48 & 8/27/17 5f in 59, 7 days before next race.
3rd race 9/27/14: Works out 12 days after last race 9/15/14 4f in 47.4, works 6 days before 3rd race on 9/21/14 5f in 59.3. After the race he is back working out 11 days later on 10/8/14 4f in 47.3, he had 3 more works leading up to his scheduled Breeder's Cup race, his last on 10/26/14, 6 days before the race.
3yo campaign:
Rebel 3/14/15: 6 workouts prior to 3yo debut, final work 3/6/15, 8 days before the race
Ark Derby 4/11/15: Works out 15 days after Rebel 3/29/15 5f in 58.3, then 6 days before the Ark Derby 6f in 111.3.
Derby 5/2/15: Works out on 4/26/15 5f in 58.2, 15 days after the Ark Derby & 6 days before the Kentucky Derby.
Preakness 5/16/15: No way to fit in a workout about 2 weeks after his last race & about 1 week before this race.