I'm going to have to go into "read only" mode for awhile now. If I spend too much more time on this I will lose my edge by race time. The discussions so far have been great.

The draw and some second thought have tightened things up a bit for me.

Lion Heart, or, The Ghost of War Emblem? - most people who like this horse must imagine he won't get pressed too hard. I remember asking Jerry about the War Emblem Derby after the race and he said "well there really wasn't that much early speed in the race." I don't think that's the case here, and this will be the main impact Smarty Jones will have. If Smarty/Elliot gets out of the gate and five horses are in front of them, they will have a collective heart attack. They are going to WING it, and they will be there with Lion Heart for a mile (at least). Others who press will not be TOO far off. It's a very different scenario than the War Emblem wire job. I'm not sure the draw is that great either, because he will have to REALLY push early to clear the wall outside of him, although he will certainly save ground on that first turn.

So we have a horse that is going to try to wire THIS field off one hot route prep (I won't make too much of this, but it was a hot front-running prep on a track that may favor that kind of running style). The pace and coming in kind of light are two knocks against him. I'm not crazy about Smith either. Overall, I see him more in the third spot in tris and I don't see him winning as much as I did earlier this week. They sure aren't prepping Smarty like he's going to rate, and now that he's outside, he's going to fire out of there after that $5 million babe. And there are others too...

Pollard's Vision - has one strike against him, Carson City. That's not bad, and may help if it comes up wet, no? Got the draw they wanted. Love Velazquez and I don't think there is a hotter combo now than JV/Pletcher. Fast enough and won't lose TOO much ground in the second flight (I hope). 20-1 or more? Total value.

Borrego - The more I look at the sheet, the more I think he may be the second big candidate to move up here (as well as Imperialism). Pace suits. Nice draw. Should have enough bottom. Was cutting into Smarty at Oaklawn rallying in mud (which I would think would favor speed a bit). The stretch is about 3-400 feet longer at Churchill (if I remember my American Racing Manual data). Has moved up in my estimation.

Tapit - Will now lose ground big time into that first turn (he's really not a stone closer), which means he's going to have to run out of his skin to win; remains a headache in the longer exotics (tris/supers). Really no bargain here at 8-1.

The Cliff's Edge - The low priced spoiler. Good draw. I think he will run. Even if he regresses a bit, he fits. Pace suits big time. Nice draw, and should save ground on the first turn (if you see Sellers wide on the first turn and you like him, start swearing, because barring a miracle he will be WIDE on the second turn too, and then he may have to pair the negative two to show). Have to make 'saver' tickets with him.

Pro Prado - Maybe the draw isn't that bad for him. 50-1? Gotta use, though I lean against him a little in the top spot.

Quinton's Gold Rush - I'm gonna take a wild guess and say that this draw is less than great for him. Is going to expend a lot of energy early or he's going to have to learn a new game out there.

Minister Eric and Wimbledon drew well. I don't like either of them on top, but if I throw in anything, these are two candidates. I'd hate to see Day or Bailey save ground and suck up third at big prices and blow me out of the payday. This is what I'll be turning over a little now.

So Lion Heart moves down a peg, as does Quinton's Gold Rush. Pollard's Vision and Borrego move up and look like win/key bets. The Cliff's Edge can spoil the totebombs a little. Imperialism still looks nice at the price, as does Pro Prado. I can deal with four longshots without going too crazy.

Ladies and gentlemen, good night! HP