breeding: sire, saint ballado, has brilliant bloodlines, and has produced a few good route runners (captain bodgit the most successful). TG sire stats show his runners should be best at 1m to 9f, but 10f not out of the question. average winning distance of his offspring is 7.0f, a bit on the short side. st averils's dam, avie's fancy, was a nice turf runner, who did her best running going long. SA has a dosage of 1.55, mainly due to the great distance influences of his sire. overall, SA's pedigree says middle distances should suit best, but 10f is within reach.

pace scenerio: has unlimited speed, enough speed to be placed anywhere in the race. should get decent trip.

the #'s: extremely fast horse. hit the half in :44.3 in his first career start, earning a very fast TG figure. was no match for LH in his second start, but ran huge in his final 2 yr old start, finishing up very well. in the first start this year, SA ran a great race, earning another big TG #, while earning a 101 late pace # (not great, but not bad). not sure what happened in the SA derby. some say feet problems, some say it was the :58 work a few days before the race, i have no idea, but i just can't ignore the race. too many question marks for me. i will not be using SA in this year's derby.

note: there are a few horses i will move up if the track is wet on derby day. SA is one of them. ammendment to be made if it is raining on saturday.