If Dickinson predicted that Beyer with the two turn variant issue and the bearing in ground loss, then he would win at darn near 100% because he would place his horses almost invariably in the right spot. I think he wins at a very credible 20%, (28% current year). He may win this Derby but putting grass from Tapeta farm in front of Tapit's stall won't win it for him. I have to admit, I do like him because he's so considerate of the horse. He's the anti-Lukas. He'll need to improve about 8 beyer points plus from that outside hole and closing on less than a scorching pace. His drills are leisurely. Plus the bearing in is still not sufficiently explained.

If he wins every owner out there is gonna beat a path to his door next year. They may not like his 3 races a year program however. But my suspicion is he's probably gonna have to go back to drawing board a bit after this one.

I'll save with him in third. But I will let him beat me.