breeding: bred to run all day. ap indy's go forever (TG sire index shows a huge difference between races over/under 1m). the dam, antespend, could also run far (mostly on turf). FL should relish 10f and longer. FL, like many ap indy's, is not all that agile however. he is a huge horse, and needs to get comfortably into his long stride to be effective. last year, a very similar horse by ap indy, Ats, found the tight turns and big field too difficult to handle, and came running very fast to get up for fourth.

pace scenerio: i see a decent pace here, and FL should be able to close. if the field gets bunched up, however, FL is one of the horses most likely to be negatively affected by the traffic.

the #'s: ran very fast as a two yr old at belmont, then regressed first out this year when strangled to death by mig. in my pre race fla derby analysis, i used FL in the top three spots at 37-1, assuming that kimmel threatened to strangle mig if he strangled FL again. FL ran better early on that day (much faster mid pace figure from bris), and went on to win. i think FL is the most talented horse in the field this year. he is fast, and will run all day. i am very concerned, however, that the horse will not get the trip he needs, and, because of that, i will not be using FL in the top spots in this year's derby (but might include him underneath in the exotics).