i was going to do a rundown of the entire card, but i'm coming up with bailey and velazquez in just about every race, probably all at low odds. if the track is wet fast at Oaks time, i will just watch the race. i'm not sure they can beat Ash and ME if the track is real quick. if it evens out though:

ashado: two full brothers, one was a sprinter, and the other currently runs long on turf. this one is kind of in between, probably best at 1m to 1 1/16m. has run two fast races this year, both over surfaces that favored ashado's stalking/speed style. if the track is playing quick, i expect another run in the "2" range. if the surface gets a bit heavy though, i think the the horse might have a bit of trouble in the final 1/16th. late pace #'s have been a bit on the low side, and i'm just not convinced about the stretch out at low odds.

hollywood story: this one looks just a bit too slow.

island sand: nice, improving horse. ran well last, but was not able to contend with HoF late, and has to stretch out here. has a shot, but i will not use.

halfbridled: no idea here. too many question marks for me.

house of fortune: i like this horse. ran a nice # last while encountering a bit of trouble. has been finishing well (very good lp #'s), and should get a decent trip, tracking the speed from post five. wheels back a bit soon after the tough race last, but if able to overcome that, i think we have a contender at ml of 5-1.

ME: brilliant filly. will be tough to catch if the track is real quick, but i will try to beat her if the track is playing even. late pace #'s have been a bit on the slow side, and there is no guarantee she will get the extra distance. reluctant toss at low odds.

silent sighs: niceforward moving pattern, and ran pretty quick last. lp # was just a bit slow however, and i'm not sure about the stretch out. might be fast enough to win if the pattern continues, but a reluctant toss for me.

victory usa: contender, but looks just a touch slow for me.

ap adventure: looks a touch on the slow side, but i think she can improve. was shuffled a bit last, but ran well once she got loose. the horse is bred to run all day, and if the pace gets hot up front, we could see a three or four point jump here. still not convinced she is fast enough, but i will take a shot with this filly on top.

last song: one of the faster horses in the race. didn't like the kee strip, so i can forgive her backward looking pattern. stalker might get caught a bit wide around the first turn though. definite contender, but a reluctant toss because of the post.

class above: bad post, a touch slow

stellar: bad post

........ i don't like betting races with large fields over a sloppy track, but if the surface looks to be playing fair, i will take a shot with the 9 on top, and use the 5 and 9 in the exotics. good luck everybody !!!!