Joe B,

It is 2015, not 2008.

Bravo isn't even "the man" there anymore. Paco Lopez is bet more than Bravo is.

The price won't be the problem. pretty good chance that competitive edge goes off second choice, not Upstart. Upstart hasn't won a race since the winter. (March)

Pharaoh will be bet at least as heavily as Rachel was in the Haskell. 5-1 or so on Upstart shouldn't be a problem.

Winning the race will be a lot harder than getting the right price.

TGJB,

I see the sheets and from a purist sheet read, I guess I would be foaming at the mouth to bet Upstart at 5-1 or so against Pharaoh at 2-5 or lower. The problem is that the sheet doesn't tell the whole story IMO.

I don't care that AP ran a "slow figure" in the Belmont. He, nor almost any other horse in our breed, is bred to run 1 1/2 on dirt. He galloped and the slow pace he ran because Materiality was a can of @#$%&, made a fast figure impossible. His Preakness is another "slow" figure. Not really, he speed popped the field and ran them all into the ground. His Derby is his top and yet the connections claim he didn't like the track. I don't know, from a "performance assessment", which we as handicappers have to do, I think the three triple crown races are about the same. (factoring trip, speed figures, pace, etc.etc)

I figure him to run another race right in that range from a performance perspective. Can he lose ground or be pushed on the pace Sunday? Maybe.

Which brings me to Upstart. I know you said "best sheet for a young horse that you have seen in many years, including Rachel". (sorry if I didn't get that exactly right, but I think you did post something similar to that. Yep, can't question his 2 year old foundation and ability. He ran really well. When it comes to his 3-year old year, I am more skeptical now, with the benefit of hindsight. I was on board that the Florida Derby was the top Derby prep race, by far. Fastest horses, top competition. and I bet accordingly thereafter. Materiality has turned out to be awful, as many on this board predicted pre-Derby and I wasted time and money defending and betting on him. Upstart was awful in the Derby and couldn't get by Materiality with a good trip in the Florida Derby (ground loss offset by dead speed track and outside bias that day). His race before the Floriday Derby was OK, but geez, that was an awful surface and he looked exhausted the last quarter or so. The race before was good, but 1 1/16th. I don't know how good this horse is. it is at least a fair question if he is a classic early developer that doesn't get better and has distance limitations.

That said, if I get 5-1 or so, I am likely to bet him. i think I am getting compensated for the questions.

Rob