Frank I think I know where you are leading with that one. Here with Untappable she has yet to prove she is the same filly she was in first half of last year, this year and the last half of last year too.

I'm sure there will be some who will look at her last number as a positive condition move but its only consistent with her last 4 efforts last year. Maybe its the old its a long year and they haven't tightened the screws yet story....

But from a handicapping perspective she is spotting 1 point in weight to all others. She is consistently 3-4 WIDE in EVERY race! Thats another point! Add in that she will be 3 or 4-5 and others like House Rules who she only nosed in her last will be 3-1 or more and this one is an obvious bet against. And that doesn't discount that she cant win. Its just the wrong handicapping approach and a bad bet...