We will be publishing data on patterns soon that will enable all of us to evaluate what the chances are off an 0-2 for a spring 3yo, but a couple of points. One is, what a lot of us (and specifically myself) were looking at was that of the 22 Derbies since we have been making figures, only 3 had been won by a horse who had just made a backward move, and this horse had run enormous figures in his last two, and was running back on 3 weeks rest for the fourth time in a row. Now it's 4 for 23. In the end, betting the Derby SHOULD be like betting other races-- you are not looking for the most likely winner, you are looking for the right bet(s). Which doesn't mean I was right-- but my history with this race is very good. I've hit it about 40% of the time, and a few of them were very big scores-- since 94 the tri 3 times, the super once, and 2 other smaller profits. I thought SJ was a very tricky call, because of the combination of the iffy pattern with tremendous number power-- I don't remember offhand when a horse went into this race almost 3 points faster than the next fastest horse, with a second number also faster. If he had been 2-1 he would have been a toss for me, at 8-1 a play, as it was he was just usable. For me-- obviously others differed in both directions.

The other point concerns "easy" wins. Even if I agreed SJ's last was easy (I don't), I will tell you that after a long time in this game I have found that there is no truth in the idea that easy wins don't take anything out of a horse. As Ragozin said to me 25 years ago, even if I agree he could have run faster then, why does that mean he gets to use the energy now? And even if horses are not pushed the last few yards, they usually ran very hard earlier in the race. We put h? next to a horse not because it's a non-effort, but because the figure itself may not be indicative of the horse's ability.



TGJB