I just completed a fractional split analysis of the Kentucky Derby. I find this tool invaluable for getting a good grip on the Triple Crown capabilities of the Derby participants. Unfortunately I can't post it here because the format is "Excel Spreadsheet." But I'll summarize it.

http://www.angelfire.com/falcon/djdalton/2004_Kentucky_Derby_Split_Fractions.xls

Closing Fraction:

The horse with the best closing fraction was Imperialism (26.11). Second best was Smarty (26.66). Third best Action this Day (26.86).

Internal Splits:

Internal Splits were very interesting. All this talk about Cliff not running his race seems a bit more questionable on the internal fractions. Cliff had the best internal split to the mile (25.10) followed in second by Smarty (25.30). Essentially, Cliff ran best where he's been running best but he flattened out on the tough row home and ran a closing quarter of (27.91). It may be his shoes came off in the homestretch. It may also be he got tired.

Another interesting horse was Tapit. He tied for firing the fastest internal fractions for both the 1/2 split and the 3/4 split, (23.64 and 24.12) respectively. He came home in 28.61. More evidence I'm afraid for his connections that his next race should be the Met Mile.

I did this same review in 1989. Its almost the same thing I saw then. 14 of 18 came home in slower than 2:06. By the way that Belmont in 1989 was Easy Goer by 8 in 2:26 and it probably could have been by 15. Sunday and Le Voyager (new shooter) battled for the place with Sunday prevailing on heart and class alone. He wanted no real part of 12 marks.



Post Edited (05-04-04 06:30)