Johnny,

Not speaking for whomever did the analysis but I'll state my own humble opinion on this race that I hit the pick 3 and lost money on it!

Harlans Holiday's improve 4 points from 2-3, the rail at Gulf in 7.5, mile and mile and 1/16 turf heats is a huge advantage more so with rail placements which go way out there at Gulf. Look how many monster price horses get great trips from inside post 4 in these races and get into the verticals? Toss his first 3 races on dirt, 1st race was a 5f sprint with a vet scratch the week before,sy, OP then we go to turf 16, 11, a regression with 3W4W into a hot pace, 9 weeks off back to the 11, inside, getting weight, 7 weeks from last race, this horse can be pencilled in for a 9 or 10 at 20/1.

IMHO:
Only the 7 had a better pattern and Casse's runners have all been coming around, once could make a case that with ground loss and weight the 1 had as good a chance to win as the 7 at more than 10 times the price. I bet very little on the pick 3 as the payoffs would have been nothing with the 6 or 7, it only paid $118 with the the 20/1 shot. Crushed the tri's with 1,6,7 box, 7/1,6/ ALL 1,6/7/All and healthy exacta's 1/6,7 key box.

Before TGJB scolds me for wasting a $40 horse! Inspite of all the above positives I still thought the 6 and 7 were both more likely winners and could not imagine both of them being out of the exacta! So NO win bet on the 1 nor even a small exacta wheel. He would have made a lovely pick 4 or 5 had I not blown the first and second races.

OH WELL,

Frank D.

PS 1st trip to Gulf this winter will be Friday and Saturday February 19th & 20th if anyone if there those days send me a PM and we can have a cocktail. I'll be back twice in March gotta love Jet Blue and Hilton honors at the Hampton Inn drunken staggering distance from the village!!!!