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Of hermaphrodites and figures (987 Views)
Posted by: mandown (IP Logged)
Date: May 14, 2004 09:06AM

Those of you who read the other board may have seen a rant from Jerry's one-time biggest fan. It concluded with a perceptive and honest observation - "This is, all of it, pathetic" - so I can only assume that it was written in good faith.

JJ's previous comment, however, was so ludicrous it needs to be refuted. As the person who knows more about the TG database than anyone else I can say that the idea that Jerry 'adjusts' the figures for horses so that they are round numbers is a complete and utter nonsense.

We store the numbers on a 0-1000 scale and then divide them by 10 for publication. The output routines round the stored numbers to the fractions.

When we make the figures a program calculates a raw figure for the race. The figures for the horses in each race are then calculated according to the weight carried and the lengths beaten.

Jerry (or whoever else is doing the day if it is one of the minor tracks) then looks at a print-out of the day to make the variant corrections. He determines the variants on a race-by-race basis and writes that on the print-out.

Someone else then enters that race variant into the system and the system applies it to all the horses in the race and adjusts their figures.

The only way Janis's assertion could be true would be if (i) when Jerry made the variant he did so with a view to making as many of the figures for each horse 'whole;' (ii) Jerry made changes to the individual horse figures calculated by the system; (iii) the person entering the variant into the system makes adjustments to individual figures.

Anyone who has worked in the TG office will tell you that (ii) and (iii) simply do not happen - other than to allocate '999' to horses that do not finish and to ensure that a variant does not make a horse figure exactly 0 (we use 0 to indicate no figure and store a 'real' 0 on the system as 1).

With regard to the first option anyone who has ever made figures will know what a chore it can become. Believe me, Jerry does some pretty weird things but not even he would make a demanding job even more exacting for some perceived cosmetic reason.

There is, however, a mathematical reason why Janis's analysis of 'thousands of numbers at 10 tracks' - amazing how much time people can waste when they're obsessed, isn't it? - may have led her to his whacky conclusion.

As we round the 0-1000 numbers then, for obvious reasons, there cannot be an even distribution across the four fractions. Figures ending in 9, 0 or 1 become a whole number, those ending in 2 or 3 are 1/4, those ending in 4, 5 or 6 are 1/2 and those ending in 7 or 8 are 3/4. There will, therefore, be more whole numbers and halves than quarters and three-quarters.

So there you are, I've given Janis some more ammunition: Thorograph admit figures are rounded! You were right, Janis. Pathetic is indeed the word.

PS: I'd have thought the orginal point (from Patrick Supposition) was as much an argument for 'cutting a race loose' as for sliding the variant. Patrick apparently thinks it's wrong to assume that you can make a variant based on the previous performances of the horses in a race because horses aren't consistent but it's right to assume that the relationships between the races on a day (whether routes or sprints) are consistent because the races are run by horses which, in this instance, are consistent. As Janis said, great point. Just stay clear of the Kool-Ade, lads.



Subject Written By Posted
Of hermaphrodites and figures (987 Views) mandown 05/14/2004 09:06AM
Re: Of hermaphrodites and figures (545 Views) TGJB 05/14/2004 01:17PM
Re: Of hermaphrodites and figures (521 Views) TGJB 05/14/2004 07:00PM
Re: Of hermaphrodites and figures (546 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/14/2004 09:08PM
Re: Of hermaphrodites and figures (582 Views) beyerguy 05/14/2004 07:44PM
Re: Of hermaphrodites and figures (601 Views) mandown 05/15/2004 05:17PM
Re: Of hermaphrodites and figures (571 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/14/2004 06:42PM


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