Since 2000 (16 Derby's), here are your favorites by odds (excuse any typos as I tried to post this in a timely fashion). I have also posted the favorite's best Beyer Speed Figure pre-Derby which I believe has a certain correlation with Derby Odds. All of the pre-Derby lifetime (to that point) best BSF's for the horses listed (sans Harlan's Holiday which I'm working on obtaining) were at a route. Nyquist's best BSF is a 100 at 7 furlongs while his Fla Derby performance earned a 94.

Less than 2-1: [b]1[/b] (Point Given, 1.80, [b]110[/b])
2-1: [b]2[/b] (FuPeg, 2.30, [b]111[/b] BB, 2.40 [b]106[/b])
5-2: [b]4[/b] (Empire Maker 2.50, [b]111[/b] Chrome, 2.50, [b]108[/b] Bellamy Road 2.60, [b]120[/b] AP, 2.90 [b]105[/b])
3-1: [b]NONE
[/b]7-2: [b]1[/b] (Friesen Fire, 3.80 [b]104[/b])
4-1: [b]2[/b] (Smarty, 4.10, [b]108[/b] Bode, 4.20 [b]108[/b])
9-2: [b]1[/b] (Street Sense, 4.90 [b]108[/b])
5-1: [b]3[/b] (Dialed In, 5.20, [b]97*[/b] Orb, 5.40, [b]97[/b] Sweetnorthernsaint, 5.50 [b]109[/b])
6-1: [b]2[/b] (Harlan's Holiday**, 6.00, Lookin at Lucky, 6.30 [b]98[/b])

So, 7 of favs below 3-1 (4 for 7 record) and 9 of favs above 3-1 (3 for 9 record).
Mean: [b]3.90[/b]
Median: [b]3.95[/b]

Street Sense and AP the only Juvenile Champions in that time period to be favored.
Big Brown and Smarty Jones only undefeated horses in that time to be favored.
*BSF was earned in a one turn mile for Dialed In.
**Harlan's Holiday--unable to find his BSF. If anyone has it, please post. He won the Florida Derby and Bluegrass. (I think it was around 104 for Bluegrass but not certain whatsoever).

I will grant you that taking speed figures out of the context of the body of the field is very dangerous territory. However, all of the horses favored below 5-1 to had a lifetime pre-Derby route best of at least 104. Notice that the 97 of DI, Orb, and 98 of Lookin At Lucky are close to Nyquist's 100 at 7 furlongs and still higher than his Fla Derby 94.Nyquist is your favorite but "5-2 at most" as you say seems very, very unlikely to me when Exaggerator and Destin have triple digit Beyers.

If there are any errors, please let me know. Thanks.