You are probably right and I shouldn't of "guaranteed" anything but here is my logic. I understand there are many shrewd handicappers that would put Nyquist at 4-1 or higher. But Derby day brings out more non-shrewd handicappers than any other time of the year. Here is what brings him down to 5-2 or less.

1. Undefeated.
2. Won last million dollar race convincingly.
3. When everyone is predicting there will be no pace that favors Nyquist big time.
4. The favorite has won the last three years in a row.
5. Has beaten the number 2 choice convincingly off of three and a half months rest.

You don't need to point out all the reasons to bet against Nyquist. I agree and am not putting him in first or second on any of my tickets. I just feel the crowd and glut of betters will be all over him.