[b]
jma11473 wrote: [i]Of course the missing stat is how many of the RUNNERS last ran at what track (or what state, in this case). If 41% of the dirt winners last ran in CA but 36% of all runners last ran in CA, that's not a huge difference. Running last in CA does seem to help but without the other half of the equation we don't know how much.[/i][/b]
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I was curious the same thing as I was punching out those numbers last night. And JB said he would cover much of this so hopefully I'm not stepping on his toes but here you go. Again, if there are errors, my apologies but I've done the best I could in a short amount of time. Feel free to correct if there is anything wrong. Thanks.

There were 311 horses in those 29 Dirt races in '03, '12, '13, and '14.

Track of the winner's previous race, % of winners, % of runners:

[b]Santa Anita[/b], 12/29. [b]41.3% of winners.[/b] 88/311 RUNNERS, [b]28.29%[/b]
**SA with She's A Tiger, 13/29, [b]44.8%[/b] of horses that crossed the wire first**

[b]Del Mar[/b], 2/29. [b]6.89% of winners.[/b] 10/311 RUNNERS, [b]3.21%.[/b]

[b]Bel[/b], 5/29. [b]17.2% of winners.[/b] 72/311 RUNNERS, [b]23.1%.[/b]
**Bel without Rio Antonio, 4/29, [b]13.8%[/b]**

[b]Kee[/b], 4/29. [b]13.8% of winners.[/b] 41/311 RUNNERS, [b]13.1%.[/b]

[b]Parx[/b], 3/29. [b]10.3% of winners.[/b] 19/311 RUNNERS, [b]6.1%.[/b]

[b]Turfway[/b], 1/29. [b]3.44% of winners.[/b] 4/311 RUNNERS. [b]1.2%.[/b]

[b]Europe[/b], 1/29. [b]3.44% of winners.[/b] 10/311 RUNNERS (I believe). [b]3.21%.[/b]

[b]South America[/b], 1/29. [b]3.44% of winners.[/b] 5/311 (I believe). [b]1.6%.
[/b]

I have not included the percentages from the many, many tracks that produced no winners including Churchill (0 for 9) and Saratoga (0 for 12) and all the rest.

Some of the obscure Euro and South America letters/symbols may have those two stats for RUNNERS off a tiny bit.

As for total horses with a previous race in the state of California versus the number of horses that crossed the wire first that previously raced in California.

SA, 88/311.
Dmr, 10/311.
Fresno, 2/311.
Hol, 2/311.
Fairplex, 1/311.

[b]TOTAL NUMBER OF RUNNERS WITH PREV. RACE IN CALI BEFORE SA BC DIRT RACE, 103/311, 33.1%

PERCENTAGE OF HORSES THAT CROSSED THE WIRE FIRST FROM A PREV. RACE IN CALI, 15/29, 51.7% (Includes DQ'ed She's A Tiger).[/b]

Alright, I'm officially finished with these projects. I wondered also about how other BC locations would compare to this one for percentage of winners from which tracks but that is an extraordinary undertaking.

Note the Keeneland comparison nearly identical despite a notion that Keeneland is an advantageous place to ship from into SA. Also note if you combine Keeneland and Belmont percentages, you have a higher percentage of starters than SA and a lower percentage of winners than SA. Best of luck and hope this helps confirm a potential home court advantage.