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Re: Home Court Advantage on Dirt? (831 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: October 27, 2017 10:29PM

Updating this a bit with last year's winners included. I didn't calculate in the total number of runners from each of these tracks like last year due to time constraints but thought I would still share. Given the BC is at Del Mar for the first time, this may not be helpful to you; others may think it is very helpful. That's for you to decide.

Percentage of BC Dirt Races that a horse Crossed the Wire First from a Prev Race in Cali in '03, '12, '13, '14, and '16 Breeders Cups (all held at SA). [b]17/36, 47.2%.Includes DQ-ed She's A Tiger[/b]

Santa Anita, 14/36. 38.8% of winners previous race at SA.

Del Mar, 3/36. 8.3% of winners.

Bel, 6/36. 16.7% of winners.

Kee, 5/36. 13.8% of winners.

Parx, 3/36. 8.3% of winners.

Saratoga, 2/36. 5.5% of winners.

Turfway, 1/36. 2.7% of winners.

Europe, 1/36. 2.7% of winners.

South America, 1/36. 2.7% of winners.

Interestingly the "California" home court advantage by percentage went down despite five of the seven dirt winners being trained by the likes of Baffert, Mandella, Eurton, and Kruljac. Of course, that's because Drefrong and Arrogate both ran previously on Travers Day at Saratoga.....a day I will never forget albeit in a fuzzy, hung over manner sitting next to Uncle Bill.

More interesting is that the layoffs of these dirt winners were as follows:

Tamarkuz. Bel. 26 day layoff.
Beholder. SA. 33 day layoff.
Champagne Room. SA. 34 day layoff.
Drefong. Sar. [b]69 day layoff.[/b]
Classic Empire. Kee. 27 day layoff.
Finest City. DMR. [b]61 day layoff.[/b]
Arrogate. Sar. [b]69 day layoff.[/b]

And thus the long layoff trend by several trainers into the BC began in 2017. Also noteworthy that ZERO previous dirt BC race winners from Saratoga in those 4 previous SA Breeders Cups. Then 2 last year from Baffert at SA.

Wondering if TG seminar will include any stats on long layoffs into the big BC days and the figures those horses have earned given that trend this year.



Subject Written By Posted
Home Court Advantage on Dirt? (1891 Views) Fairmount1 10/26/2016 09:44PM
Re: Home Court Advantage on Dirt? (1301 Views) jma11473 10/27/2016 08:44AM
Re: Home Court Advantage on Dirt? (1357 Views) TGJB 10/27/2016 11:45AM
Re: Home Court Advantage on Dirt? (1302 Views) FrankD. 10/27/2016 12:16PM
Re: Home Court Advantage on Dirt? (1242 Views) Caradoc 10/27/2016 12:45PM
Re: Home Court Advantage on Dirt? (1254 Views) paniolo 10/27/2016 04:49PM
Re: Home Court Advantage on Dirt? (1248 Views) Fairmount1 10/27/2016 11:23PM
Re: Home Court Advantage on Dirt? (831 Views) Fairmount1 10/27/2017 10:29PM
Re: Home Court Advantage on Dirt? (890 Views) Mathcapper 10/28/2017 12:54AM
Re: Home Court Advantage on Dirt? (1194 Views) TheBull 10/27/2016 12:24PM


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