Re: So What Happens If....... (432 Views)
Date: June 02, 2004 02:04PM
>Look closely at Rock Hard Ten and come back and post his weaknesses.<
I don't see many, but I do see clear weaknesses among the other potential spoilers.
Purge does not look like a 12 furlong horse to me despite how impressive he was last time out.
Eddington and Master David are not impossible, but neither has shown me they are worthy of a Classic win at this time. If they win, IMO, it is more likely it will be because the race fell apart than because they ran so well.
The rest are a stretch (more speculative).
I've seen every one of RHT races and I was touting him a potential classic horse after his second start. He won both his maiden and allowance race in a way that even a novice would be impressed by. Those races screamed class. He had huge and obvious reserves of stamina and speed.
I bet him in the SA Derby off the allowance win. He didn't win that day, but IMHO, he was best.
He's a huge even paced horse that can get good early position, but often finds himself way outside losing ground.
The Belmont is perfect for him.
The track has huge sweeping turns.
The loss of ground is often not really a big disadvantage because of the way the track plays.
He will be able to secure decent early position.
The Belmont (the race) is often won by horses that are more even paced types that have good position and make an move early on the early turn to take command.
He was green in the Santa Anita Derby and again may have lost some of his race in the Preakness with all his gate antics.
Considering they have been working on the latter, I don't think it will be an issue this time.
I see a lightly raced, improving colt of obvious potential, bred for the distance, with the perfect profile, and handled by a good trainer.
He won't be able to beat SJ if that one fires another huge shot and can handle the 12 furlongs, but IMHO he's the clear cut second choice here.
If SJ does not fire his best or the 12 is an issue, RHT is the most likely to win.
It's a matter of assigning the exact probabilities. That's always tough, but considering the public always wildly overbets horses going for the triple crown, RHT will probably be playable.
Post Edited (06-02-04 14:41)