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Re: So What Happens If....... (432 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: June 02, 2004 02:04PM

>Look closely at Rock Hard Ten and come back and post his weaknesses.<

I don't see many, but I do see clear weaknesses among the other potential spoilers.

Purge does not look like a 12 furlong horse to me despite how impressive he was last time out.

Eddington and Master David are not impossible, but neither has shown me they are worthy of a Classic win at this time. If they win, IMO, it is more likely it will be because the race fell apart than because they ran so well.

The rest are a stretch (more speculative).

I've seen every one of RHT races and I was touting him a potential classic horse after his second start. He won both his maiden and allowance race in a way that even a novice would be impressed by. Those races screamed class. He had huge and obvious reserves of stamina and speed.

I bet him in the SA Derby off the allowance win. He didn't win that day, but IMHO, he was best.

He's a huge even paced horse that can get good early position, but often finds himself way outside losing ground.

The Belmont is perfect for him.

The track has huge sweeping turns.

The loss of ground is often not really a big disadvantage because of the way the track plays.

He will be able to secure decent early position.

The Belmont (the race) is often won by horses that are more even paced types that have good position and make an move early on the early turn to take command.

He was green in the Santa Anita Derby and again may have lost some of his race in the Preakness with all his gate antics.

Considering they have been working on the latter, I don't think it will be an issue this time.

I see a lightly raced, improving colt of obvious potential, bred for the distance, with the perfect profile, and handled by a good trainer.

He won't be able to beat SJ if that one fires another huge shot and can handle the 12 furlongs, but IMHO he's the clear cut second choice here.

If SJ does not fire his best or the 12 is an issue, RHT is the most likely to win.

It's a matter of assigning the exact probabilities. That's always tough, but considering the public always wildly overbets horses going for the triple crown, RHT will probably be playable.



Post Edited (06-02-04 14:41)



Subject Written By Posted
So What Happens If....... (781 Views) 06/02/2004 11:34AM
Re: So What Happens If....... (469 Views) pgsheets 06/02/2004 12:45PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (470 Views) JR 06/02/2004 12:55PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (471 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 06/02/2004 01:27PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (504 Views) pgsheets 06/02/2004 01:43PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (472 Views) twoshoes 06/02/2004 01:49PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (497 Views) 06/02/2004 02:15PM
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Re: So What Happens If....... (411 Views) Silver Charm 06/02/2004 03:44PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (451 Views) jbelfior 06/02/2004 04:24PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (496 Views) BitPlayer 06/06/2004 01:53PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (457 Views) jbelfior 06/07/2004 04:06PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (468 Views) 06/02/2004 04:03PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (556 Views) twoshoes 06/02/2004 03:17PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (432 Views) 06/02/2004 02:04PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (496 Views) bdhsheets 06/02/2004 03:33PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (419 Views) magicnight 06/02/2004 05:37PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (411 Views) Bham41 06/02/2004 07:33PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (487 Views) shanahan 06/02/2004 10:33PM
Re: So What Happens If....... (469 Views) fasteddie 06/03/2004 11:46AM


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