pgsheets wrote:

"I don't see SJ running better than a 0. I used to use 3 straight efforts as the cut-off until War Emblem came around. Now SJ enters the 1 1/2 mile Belmont off 4 straight freaky efforts."

The question is, what do you describe as an effort? Going from a 15 to a 10 would be for some; racing consecutive 5's for others etc. There's a threshold out there for everyone.

For good spring 3yo's the "threshold" is about a 2.0; at this point, most say uncle. The prep races this season were strewn with "erratic" results, but in reality many had just crossed this threshold and reacted. Not many are able to repeat these efforts and are replaced by others who can't also. Which leads us to Smarty Jones.

The truth of the matter is, Smarty has run seven, thats 7 freaky efforts in a row. All 0.5's or less. That'll be 7 efforts better than any single lifetime top by all the Belmont entrants but Purge with two Zeds and whatever he ran in the Peter Pan, which looks as though it was a fast race.

Will Smarty finally collapse after a last gasp re-top at -3.75, doubt it. This one is special [read the post about the bio-mechanics I posted earlier] and might never lose. [they all do eventually, but......he loves to win]

Later,

'sheets



May they all come home safely!