>predicted that Rock Hard Ten and Eddington would not handle the 12 furlongs.<

I don't think 12 furlongs had all that much to do with RHT's or Eddington's performance in the Belmont.

When you challenge a horse that is both superior overall and that has greater brilliance, you usually pay a big price. That's what happened to them. Without the challenges to SJ on the backside, IMO they would have run a LOT better.

Take a look at hundreds of speed duels between 2-3 horses where 1 clearly has more early speed/acceleration and is better overall. The other 2 will routinely get buried badly because they are running to their limit and the other is still within himself. The primary speed gets hurt much less han the 2nd/3rd speed.

In fact, that scenario is often a great exacta play. If the 2nd and 3rd speed horse look like contenders for the place spot, they are actually usually underlays in the exacta underneath the main speed because of the potential of him killing them off and a less talented closer sucking up for second. (this works with unrateable speeds)

The Belmont wasn't exactly a duel, but that backside pressure took more out of the others than it took out of SJ.