TGJB,

I totally agree that the final quarter is a function of the fractions - fast early fractions equals slower late fractions and vice versa.

At a certain point I think it starts to become clear that the pace played a role in not only the final fractions but in the final time also. I think we agree on that.

The problems of course are when and how much.....

"I" don't think there is a formula for determining that even though some guys try to estimate it with pace figures. I think it's a very individual thing that varies from horse to horse depending on stamina, brilliance, etc... and your ability to make accurate pace judgements (which is really tough).

I haven't bothered to figure out the final quarters for RHT or Eddington, but I feel confident that their early efforts were too extreme for them for a 12 furlong race because they were much too slow and tired late - especially in relation to their 10 furlong times.

I suppose you also could argue they aren't 12 furlong horses and that's why they tired so badly too. Maybe it was a little of both.

I guess this gets into subjective areas that don't translate well into numbers. We might disagree on the trip or disagree on the impact even when we agree on the trip.

I tend not to get too hung up on an exact number and have come to believe that the impact of pace is not an all or nothing thing as in 'large impact' or 'no impact'. There are things in between that aren't measured well, but that do exist.

I am making a subjective judgement here that could be wrong.



Post Edited (06-11-04 11:26)